Before I get into modeled conversions, you may be asking, ‘Where is your picture, Mikey-‘ Well, if you look closely – who am I kidding, you don’t even need to look that closely, you can spot me. Yup – that is my fur all over that shirt (and well yes, all over pretty much everything I go near!)
Modeled Conversions – Google uses modeling to estimate online conversions that can’t be observed directly. There are many reasons why conversions cannot be modeled directly (and the number of ‘un-observable’ conversions seems to be growing daily). Such reasons are:
Browsers that don’t allow conversions to be measured with third-party cookies will have conversions modeled based on your websites’ traffic.
Browsers that limit the time window for first-party cookies will have conversions (beyond the window) modeled.
Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy requires developers to obtain permission to use certain information from other apps and websites. Google won’t use information (such as IDFA) that falls under the ATT policy. Conversions whose ads originate on ATT impacted traffic are modeled.
When the ad interaction and the conversion happen on different devices, conversions may be modeled.
Conversion modeling covers both click-based events and engaged views for YouTube, to help with attribution for engaged-view conversions (EVCs).
Any conversions imported into Google Ads from linked Google Analytics 4 properties will include modeling
Modeled conversions as opposed to Observed Conversions which have not been impacted by any of the privacy regulations or other technical reasons that prevent conversions from actually showing up in analytics and reporting. And how is that for a creepy image of observe?